European LNG bunker prices and front-month TTF fell as hopes grew that the Middle East conflict could end. EU gas storage was 73% full on November 8, down from 75% a week earlier and 13% below a year earlier; the IEA warned that a prolonged Hormuz closure and cold winter could leave storage critically low by March.
Singapore LNG bunker prices also declined alongside JKM.
Diplomatic optimism is easing the geopolitical risk premium and weighing on gas prices. Low European inventories and the risk of disrupted LNG supply could limit the decline and increase competition for gas later in the season.
After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.