
Chicago corn futures declined ahead of the USDA report, with the December contract down 2.25 cents to $4.3925 per bushel during Monday’s session. Rain delayed soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul; Emater estimates 6.645 million hectares will be planted and projects state production of 21.15 million tonnes.
Rain-related planting delays could raise concern about timely establishment of the Rio Grande do Sul soybean crop, while the reported decline in Chicago corn futures is bearish for corn prices. The size and persistence of any crop impact remain uncertain.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.