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NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maintained its El Niño Advisory on November 9, reporting weekly sea-surface temperature departures of 4.7°C in Niño 1+2 and 2.3°C in Niño 3.4, with the August–October RONI at 2.0°C. The CPC said the event is strengthening and put the chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027 above 83%.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of disruptive rainfall and temperature patterns in major crop-producing regions, potentially tightening supplies and supporting prices for exposed crops. The article gives a climate outlook, not a quantified crop impact, so price effects remain uncertain.
elnino.newsNov 9, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
