Iraq’s Output Claim Raises Questions Over OPEC+ Target

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Aug 8, 2018Iran says OPEC may need extraordinary meeting over output changes-3.1%
• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+1.3%
• Mar 1, 2026OPEC+ to Resume Oil Output Increases as Iran Conflict Rages - Bloomberg+35.6%
• Mar 9, 2018Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.7%
• Nov 1, 2025Oil settles lower as OPEC plans to increase oil output-2.0%

After 210 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.8% to +3.2%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Aug 8, 2018Iran says OPEC may need extraordinary meeting over output changes-2.5%
• Sep 7, 2025Opec+ agrees another rise in oil output for October | The National+3.4%
• Mar 1, 2026OPEC+ to Resume Oil Output Increases as Iran Conflict Rages - Bloomberg+31.0%
• Mar 9, 2018Opec+ likely to raise July oil output by 188,000 bpd+1.0%
• Nov 1, 2025Oil settles lower as OPEC plans to increase oil output-2.4%