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Brent and WTI fell on Monday as Qatar’s prime minister brought an Iranian proposal for an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to the White House. The reported terms would have Iran reopen the strait and stop attacks on Gulf tankers in exchange for the U.S. lifting its blockade and releasing $8 billion in frozen Iranian funds; neither government had confirmed the proposal, and U.S. officials reportedly opposed it.
A deal that restores Hormuz shipping and reduces conflict risk could ease the crude supply-risk premium and push oil prices lower. The proposal’s uncertain status and continued attacks leave substantial upside risk if negotiations fail.
oilprice.comCharles KennedyNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
