A Phoenix Agro analyst forecast that Ukrainian sunflower prices could gain $50–70 per tonne in the second half of November through December 2026 as seed exports pick up and sunflower oil shipments recover. He estimated the 2026 crop at 11–11.5 million tonnes, down from an initial estimate of about 13 million tonnes after unfavorable September weather; war and logistics risks could limit gains.
Renewed oil exports and seed shipments would support demand for sunflower raw material and lift prices, while port constraints could cap the increase. A smaller crop also tightens domestic processor supply, though the article says it should still be sufficient for processing needs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.