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US durum wheat production is estimated at 64.8 million bushels, down about 24.5% from the previous year, while Canadian production is forecast at 6.42 million tonnes versus 7.31 million tonnes. Rain during harvest in parts of North Dakota, Montana and Saskatchewan reduced grain quality, including vitreous kernel content and semolina extraction, leading processors to pay larger premiums for durum suitable for pasta; overall supplies are not considered short.
Lower production and harvest damage to milling quality tighten availability of durum that meets processors’ specifications, supporting premiums for higher-quality wheat even though total supplies remain adequate. This is a quality-driven bullish signal for wheat prices and spreads.
ukragroconsult.comNov 9, 2026After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
