European natural gas prices rose above €86/MWh but remained near a two-week low as traders weighed hopes for progress in US-Iran talks against continued tensions. European storage was 72.65% full on November 8, below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while colder weather, low renewable generation and Norwegian pipeline outages increased withdrawals and tightened supply.
Low inventories and competition with Asia for LNG cargoes could sustain upward pressure on European gas prices, although diplomatic progress could ease supply-risk premiums.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.