
Oil prices were little changed after President Donald Trump said new US strikes on Iran were unlikely while negotiations continue. Reports of attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz kept supply concerns in focus after Brent’s steep weekly decline.
A lower perceived chance of escalation can ease the geopolitical risk premium, while continued disruption around Hormuz may support prices. These opposing forces left prices broadly steady.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.