
The Canadian dollar traded higher against the US dollar, although falling crude prices weighed on the currency. Strong US employment data raised expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, while markets awaited US inflation reports.
Lower oil prices can weaken Canada’s commodity-linked currency, while stronger US rate expectations support the dollar; both factors can push USD/CAD higher. Cheaper crude is bearish for oil prices.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.