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Oil prices opened lower on Monday after Trump said fresh US strikes on Iran were highly unlikely if negotiations made progress. Brent briefly fell by more than $1 a barrel, while reports of attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz kept concerns about disruption alive.
The lower likelihood of further military action reduces the crude risk premium, but threats and attacks around Hormuz could still disrupt supply and support prices.
timesofindia.indiatimes.comShivanghi PayalNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
