
European benchmark gas prices have retreated about 17% from their late-October peak, with TTF falling to €86.36/MWh on November 5. EU storage was 74.3% full, below its five-year seasonal average of about 90%, while October LNG imports were 84% of their pre-war average and QatarEnergy extended its force majeure through at least December.
Diplomatic hopes have eased the price premium, but constrained LNG flows and low storage leave Europe exposed to renewed supply disruptions as winter demand builds. The underlying supply tightness supports prices despite the recent decline.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.