IKAR expects Russian wheat exports through Baltic Sea ports to reach about 3 million tonnes in October, up from 2.4 million tonnes in September. The forecast comes as disruptions in the Azov-Black Sea basin have led to port suspensions and a buildup of agricultural products in the region.
Higher Baltic shipments provide an alternative route for Russian wheat exports and could partly ease supply tightness, weighing modestly on prices if the forecast is realized.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.