
US Gulf corn CIF barge bids fell 3 cents to 86 cents over December futures as exporters prioritized soybean shipments. USDA reported 136,000 tonnes of soybean sales to China and 101,000 tonnes of corn sales to undisclosed destinations, while China committed to buying at least 25 million tonnes of US soybeans in 2026-27.
Soybean export demand is directing Gulf shipping capacity away from corn, weakening corn basis despite slower farmer selling. The confirmed sales support soybean demand, while additional corn sales offer some offset.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past bullish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.