
Australia’s 2026/27 barley production is forecast at a record 17.7 million tonnes, up 4.4% year on year and 40% above its 10-year average. Exports are projected at 13 million tonnes, with China expected to buy 75–80% of shipments and Saudi Arabia providing another outlet.
Australian wheat production is forecast to fall 4 million tonnes to 32 million tonnes, though it would remain above its 10-year average.
Record barley output and export availability increase competition in global feed-grain markets and are bearish for barley prices. The smaller wheat crop could lend wheat prices some support, while strong Chinese demand may absorb a large share of barley exports.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.