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Ecuador’s ERFEN committee says the 2026–27 El Niño could reach intensity comparable to the major 1982–83 and 1997–98 events. The forecast points to risks including flooding in parts of the South American Pacific coast, drought or heat stress in parts of Southeast Asia and Australia, and disrupted Pacific fisheries.
Potential crop stress and reduced fish catches could tighten agricultural and fishmeal supplies over the coming months, supporting prices if the forecast materializes. The forecast is an early risk signal rather than evidence of realized production losses.
hamerintel.comNov 6, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
