Loading…
Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Dennis Voznesenski forecasts that global wheat prices could be 18–24% higher in 2027 if Black Sea ports remain closed; reopening early in the year would keep prices near current levels. In the closed-port scenario, Ukraine and Russia would retain about 60% of their pre-July 2026 export capacity, while wheat production among major exporters outside the two countries is forecast to fall 13% year over year.
The outlook also cites planned changes in wheat acreage and drought risk in southern Russian grain regions, and says barley prices currently fit the bank’s port-reopening baseline.
Continued port restrictions would limit Black Sea export flows and combine with lower production elsewhere to tighten global grain supply, supporting wheat and potentially barley prices. A reopening would ease that supply risk and keep prices nearer current levels.
latifundist.comЄвгенія ТкаченкоNov 6, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
