
USDA’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest 88% complete and corn harvest 74% complete as of November 1; corn remained below its five-year average pace. Winter wheat planting reached 83%, below the 86% trade estimate, while emergence was 65%, matching its five-year average.
Harvest progress mainly affects the timing of near-term deliveries rather than total production, limiting its direct price impact. Winter wheat planting behind expectations may modestly increase concern about crop establishment, while the report showed no corresponding shortfall in emergence.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.