
Safras & Mercado raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2026/27 summer corn production to 25.589 million tonnes, from 25.283 million tonnes in August, citing favorable crop conditions so far. It expects planted area in the Center-South to fall 1.7% to 3.548 million hectares, while average yield rises to 7,212 kg/ha; the estimate remains slightly below 2025/26 output.
The higher production estimate adds to expected Brazilian corn supply and is bearish for prices, though the projected crop remains marginally smaller year over year.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.