Crude Oil Forecast: Why Falling Inventories Keep Supply Risks in Focus

After 131 past bullish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.3% to +3.4%), and +2.9% over 20.

• Aug 22, 2018Oil surges after data shows steep drop in US crude inventories+1.8%
• Aug 1, 2023EIA forecasts crude oil prices will increase through 2024 as demand rises above supply+0.2%
• Oct 28, 2026US crude and distillate inventories fall, gasoline stocks rise, EIA says By Reuters-2.1%
• Feb 26, 2025US crude stockpiles fall as refining picks up, fuel inventories build, EIA says | Reuters-1.0%
• Jul 21, 2021Oil climbs over 4% despite rise in U.S. inventories | Reuters+6.4%

After 109 past bullish report events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Oct 25, 2018US crude stocks rise as fuel inventories draw down+0.5%
• Oct 28, 2026US crude and distillate inventories fall, gasoline stocks rise, EIA says By Reuters-4.2%
• Oct 9, 2024US crude stocks rose last week, fuel inventories dipped as demand surged, EIA says-4.9%
• Sep 28, 2022Oil prices rise on surprise drop in U.S. crude, fuel stocks+10.2%
• Oct 21, 2020Shifting diesel inventories could impact fuel costs for carriers - FreightWaves-1.4%