ING analyst Chris Turner said Banxico’s surprise 3–2 decision to cut its policy rate to 6.25% narrowed the Banxico–Fed rate spread to 225 basis points, its lowest in decades. He said the central bank is prioritizing weak growth and a negative output gap, and argued that the peso is vulnerable to external risk, with USD/MXN above 19 more likely than not.
A narrower yield spread makes peso carry positions less attractive and could increase peso selling during periods of external risk. Further depreciation would raise the peso cost of imported feed ingredients.
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