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USDA forecasts global rice production in 2026–27 at 533.1 million tonnes, down 12.6 million tonnes year over year and the lowest in three years, while consumption is projected to reach a record 538.8 million tonnes. FAO also forecasts lower output than the previous year; both outlooks point to falling stocks, although FAO says they could remain the second-highest on record.
Projected consumption above production and declining stocks point to a tighter global rice balance, which could support prices. Large remaining inventories may cushion the impact.
agrospectrumasia.comNov 6, 2026After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
