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A Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist estimates global wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027 if Ukrainian and Russian Black Sea ports remain closed to grain exports; prices could stay near current levels if shipping resumes early in the year. Under prolonged closures, the two countries would retain about 60% of their pre-July 2026 export capacity, while lower wheat output elsewhere and drought risk in southern Russia add supply concerns.
The analysis also warns that feed barley prices could rise if port restrictions persist, and that malting barley premiums may widen.
Extended port closures would restrict exports from two major suppliers, while weaker production elsewhere would limit replacement supply, creating upside risk for wheat and barley prices. A reopening in early 2027 would reduce that pressure.
ukragroconsult.comNov 6, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
