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Permian gas production dropped to an average of about 10.6 Bcf/d in September. Waha cash traded at $1.40/MMBtu while the 2021 curve sat at $2.65/MMBtu.
Pipeline flows toward Midcontinent and San Juan are expected to fall as West Texas prices rise.
Lower Permian output and a wider price gap with other regions could tighten gas supply in other basins and support prices there. This is a regional flow shift rather than a broad feed-market event.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.