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European TTF gas fell to around €85/MWh on November 5, more than 15% below its four-year high above €101.82/MWh late the previous week. Prices declined as traders anticipated that the U.S. midterm election results could increase pressure to end the Iran war, although EU storage remained below normal and Gulf LNG deliveries were still disrupted.
Reduced expectations of prolonged conflict eased the geopolitical risk premium and pulled European gas prices lower. Low inventories and constrained LNG supply limit the downside and leave prices vulnerable to renewed disruption or cold weather.
tradingandinvestmentnews.co.ukJonathan AdamsNov 5, 2026After 15 past bearish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median -1.1% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -9.2% to +2.4%), and +4.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
