Goldman Sachs expects the Egyptian pound to strengthen gradually against the dollar over the next twelve months, reaching 50 per dollar, and says it is more than 30% undervalued on its valuation model. The bank raised its dollar path to 53 in three months, 52 in six months and 50 in a year, from 49, 48 and 46 previously.
It also estimates foreign holdings of Egyptian local-currency debt fell to about $20 billion from $30 billion at end-September.
A weaker pound raises the cost of imported feed ingredients such as corn, soymeal and fishmeal for Egyptian buyers, and the forecast implies some relief if the currency recovers. The outlook is tied to oil prices and Middle East risk, so it is sensitive to the Iran conflict.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.