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Australia's wettest October threatens high-protein wheat quality, even as Australia is forecast to harvest at least 30 million tonnes. Chicago wheat futures have fallen about 24% from an early September three-year high near $7.95 a bushel.
Aggregate supply remains ample, so the quality risk is mainly a premium-grade issue; futures are unlikely to rally much unless quality losses spread into bulk supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.