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China's October data came in weaker than expected, with industrial output growing 5% year-on-year against a forecast of 5.2%, and retail sales falling 0.5%. Fixed asset investment also slowed, and October CPI had already come in softer.
Weak industrial output and retail sales signal softer Chinese demand for feed inputs and livestock products, while the PBOC's decision to hold rates adds to the uncertainty.
After 17 past neutral report events, USDCNY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -0.2% to +0.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.