Average market hog weights rose to 129.87 kg in early November while piglet prices fell below 95 yuan per head, a multi-year low. Sow inventory is down 10.7% year on year to 96% of the normal retention level, and farm losses are deep.
Brokers say capacity cuts are faster than expected and favor low-cost leaders such as Muyuan.
Heavier hogs and deep losses point to near-term oversupply of pork, which keeps hog prices and feed demand weak. Faster sow culling, however, sets up a supply rebound later, which would support corn and meal demand from the hog sector.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.