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China's sow herd fell 10.7% year on year to 36.02 million head at end-September, and hog prices have repeatedly bottomed rather than rebounded as expected. Analysts expect the capacity cull to be more complete and see Q2 2027 as the key window for a price turn.
Leading producers Muyuan and Wens reported full-cost declines to about 11.5 and 11.6 yuan/kg.
Sow culling reduces future pork output with a lag of roughly ten months, so supply tightens later rather than now. Feed buyers should expect soft hog margins and weak near-term pork demand for feed until the herd contraction shows up in slaughter volumes.
zqrb.cnNov 5, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
