
Indonesia's Q3 2026 GDP grew 5.47% year on year, above the 5.2% forecast, and 1.59% quarter on quarter. The rupiah firmed against the dollar after a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections and a sharp fall in oil prices.
Strong US ADP jobs data and high odds of a Fed rate hike limited the dollar's losses.
A firmer rupiah and lower oil reduce the cost of imported feed inputs for Indonesian buyers. The dollar's support from expected Fed tightening could reverse this gain.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.