
The rupee fell 9 paise to 94.55 per dollar in early trade, pressured by broad dollar strength overseas. Crude prices dropped below $100 a barrel, while foreign institutional investors kept net buying and Indian equities rose.
Lower crude and foreign equity inflows support the rupee, but a firmer dollar limits gains. Oil-price direction remains the key swing factor for India's external balance.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.