
The rupee opened at 94.35 per dollar, up from 94.64, as Brent fell more than 8% overnight to below $100 and traded near $93.84. The move was the steepest single-day crude drop since May, following the Democratic midterm victory.
The unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium in oil removes a major source of supply-side price support. Lower energy costs ease pressure on import-dependent economies such as India.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.