Oil falls for a fourth day on expectations for lower risk of Iran war escalation

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2026Oil Closes Sharply Lower as Iran Risk Fades | Rigzone-1.6%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil Falls 5%, ULSD Tumbles 14% on De-Risking Over Iran-1.6%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-1.6%
• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.3%
• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-1.6%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Feb 2, 2026Oil Closes Sharply Lower as Iran Risk Fades | Rigzone-3.1%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil Falls 5%, ULSD Tumbles 14% on De-Risking Over Iran-3.1%
• Feb 2, 2026Oil prices fall nearly 5%, below $62/bbl on US‑Iran de‑escalation - The Economic Times-3.1%
• Apr 17, 2024Oil prices fall more than 3% as traders discount Iran-Israel war risk-2.5%
• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-3.1%