China's live hog futures main contract closed at a record low of 9,150 yuan/ton on November 3, down 4.09% in a day, and spot prices near 4.47 yuan/jin are approaching April's historic low. Sow herd data show breeding sows at 36.02 million head at end-Q3, down 10.7% year on year, while the industry has run losses for 14 months.
Heavy near-term slaughter supply keeps hog prices under pressure, but the sow herd decline points to lower pork output from around January 2027, which could support prices and reduce demand for feed ingredients later.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.