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University of Illinois economists analyze how a reduction in imported cattle in 2027 would leave the United States with fewer domestic animals. They note Mexico halted feeder cattle exports in 2025 due to New World Screwworm and that only a partial reopening is now in effect, creating uncertainty about live trade.
Lower feeder cattle imports from Mexico would tighten US feeder supply, supporting feeder and live cattle prices and adding pressure on beef supply and retail prices.
agupdate.comelliott dennis, sera chiuchiarelli, wyatt thompson, seth meyerNov 4, 2026After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
