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Inmet warns that temperatures in Matopiba, covering parts of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, ran more than 2°C above historical maxima in September and October. Rainfall has been irregular at the start of the 2026/27 season, limiting soil moisture recovery in part of the region.
The agency links the conditions to El Niño.
Heat and uneven rain in Matopiba raise the risk of yield losses in one of Brazil's fastest-growing soybean areas. Any shortfall would tighten export supply and support soybean meal prices.
globorural.globo.comLuiz Eduardo MinervinoNov 4, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
