
South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee confirmed the 2025-26 maize harvest at a record 17.7 million tonnes, 6% above the previous year. Local white and yellow maize prices have eased from above 4,000 rand per tonne a month earlier, and a strong El Niño is forecast to bring a drier, hotter summer.
A large carry-in supply cushions southern African buyers against the drought risk to the 2026-27 crop, which keeps local maize prices subdued unless El Niño damage materialises.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.