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The IEA projects global LNG supply will fall 3% in 2026, about 20 bcm, the steepest annual decline on record, assuming Strait of Hormuz flows stay largely disrupted through year-end. Global gas demand is expected to drop about 1.5%, partly from Middle East demand destruction, while LNG loadings from Qatar and the UAE fell by over 60 bcm from March to October.
Losing Gulf LNG tightens global gas supply and keeps European and Asian gas prices elevated, raising energy and fertilizer input costs for feed producers. Partial offset from North American and African output limits the price spike.
gasworld.comSophie GregoryNov 4, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
