
CBOT wheat fell to its lowest since early July after nine straight weekly declines of more than 20%. Moscow allowed grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov for the first time since July 10, and US export sales were strong, with China showing interest in SRW wheat.
Resumed Russian shipments from the Azov Sea add supply to global markets and pressure wheat prices, while speculative fund shorts raise the risk of a sharp rebound.
After 11 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.8% to +0.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 137 past bearish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.0%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.