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A Klaipeda terminal co-owner says the combined capacity of producers in Belarus, Russia and Germany could cover only 30-35% of US potash demand. Fully replacing Canadian supply would take about ten years and roughly $1.5 billion in investment.
Belarus has also opened a criminal case against Bayer representatives for alleged tax evasion.
Limited capacity means Canadian potash keeps its dominant US position, so the price impact on fertiliser costs for US farmers stays small.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.