
Ghana's Meteorological Department warned in an October 30 advisory that a very strong El Niño is 96% likely to peak between November 2026 and January 2027. It projects hotter, drier conditions and below-normal rainfall through the dry season into March 2027.
Drought risk in West Africa can cut local maize and food crop output and raise regional grain import demand, a minor support for global feed grain prices at the margin.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.