
The US Department of Commerce released final sunset review results recommending continued countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco at a 20.04% subsidy rate tied to state-owned OCP. The recommendation goes to the International Trade Commission, which will decide whether removing the duties would cause material injury to the US industry.
Keeping duties on Moroccan phosphate limits import supply to the US market, supporting domestic phosphate and DAP prices. The ITC decision will determine whether that tariff-like support persists.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.