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Diesel prices rose about 33% for November deliveries in late October 2022, with reserves at their lowest since 1951, concentrated in the Northeast. A drought on the Mississippi River was pushing product onto rail and trucks, and a possible rail strike added to supply concern.
The article also cited the coming ban on Russian product and calls for government intervention.
Low river levels raise freight costs and restrict barge movement of grain and fuel, which constrains soybean and grain exports and pressures farm margins. Higher diesel and fertilizer costs also raise the cost of running farms.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
