Hog futures LH2701 fell 10.33% since taking over as main contract on October 13, closing at 9,510 yuan/tonne on October 30, the lowest since mid-April. Piglet prices dropped below 100 yuan, a low not seen since October 2021, while Q3 breeding sow inventory of 36.02 million head is 96% of the normal holding level.
Weak spot prices and a widening futures discount reflect ample current supply, but sow culling is expected to tighten pork output from around Q2 2027, a factor for longer-term hog and feed demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.