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The dollar rose more than 1% above R$5.50 in the first session after the holiday, with an intraday high above R$5.51. The move reflected the start of the central bank's policy meeting and doubts over the economic team of Lula's re-elected government.
Analysts were split between holding the Selic at 13.75% and cutting it by 0.25 point.
Currency pressure from political transition and rate uncertainty raises the cost of dollar-linked feed imports for Brazil and affects the reais value of Brazilian exports. The Copom decision will set the direction of the real and domestic credit costs.
jusconsulta.com.brRedação JusConsultaNov 3, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
