ADEX, Peru's exporters association, says fishing exports will end the year in deficit because of El Niño, with fleets idle in port since late April 2026. Fishmeal and fish oil, mostly from anchoveta, make up almost half of exports, and shipments will keep falling under current fishing restrictions.
Authorities decided not to authorize a second anchoveta season in the north and centre, and ADEX warns the 2027 outlook is uncertain.
Peru supplies a large share of world fishmeal, so prolonged low anchoveta catches keep fishmeal tight and support high prices for feed buyers, with SBM and poultry feed costs also exposed to substitution demand.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.