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An FX strategist at Ebury says a Republican Senate scenario would be broadly similar in fiscal terms to a Democratic sweep, with budget standoffs and possible shutdowns. The dollar could react more adversely because the outcome is not fully priced in.
Appointments of Trump-aligned Fed nominees could raise concerns about central bank independence.
A weaker dollar on Fed independence concerns would tend to support dollar-priced grains and oilseeds, while shutdown risk could add short-term uncertainty to US economic data releases and trade activity.
fxstreet.comMatthew Ryan, CFANov 3, 2026After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
