Trump said on Truth Social that the US is negotiating a large potash purchase from Belarus at prices well below what it pays Canada. Lukashenko responded that Belarus cannot supply large US volumes because its output is already contracted for this year.
He also said Washington must first unblock about $43-44 million in frozen Belarusian state funds.
Belarus produces about 6 million tons a year, roughly matching US imports, so a large deal would divert supply from Canada and could pressure potash prices. Lukashenko's statement that output is already contracted limits that near-term effect.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.