
The US Department of Commerce issued final results of the first full sunset review of the countervailing duty order on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco, finding revocation would likely resume subsidies at a net rate of 20.04% for OCP S.A. and others. The rate applies from November 3, 2026, and the notice does not address the companion injury review.
Keeping the 20.04% duty in place limits low-cost Moroccan phosphate imports into the US, supporting domestic DAP and phosphate prices amid already tight global supply.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.